Extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, and unusually warm ocean temperatures have defined climate conditions across several regions in 2026. Western Europe experienced its hottest June and July period on record, with sustained heat and dryness across Spain, Portugal, France, and neighboring countries. July also recorded the highest average sea-surface temperature for the month across the extra-polar global ocean.
El Niño is developing alongside these conditions; the World Meteorological Organization expects a strong event to intensify through August and October 2026, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns across several regions.
For energy and climate policy, the issue is how this advance information is used, as seasonal forecasts cannot identify every future flood, drought, wildfire, or heatwave, but they can show where risks are increasing and give institutions time to prepare.
El Niño within a warmer climate
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that generally develops every two to seven years. Weakening trade winds contribute to unusual warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, changing ocean-atmosphere circulation and influencing rainfall and temperatures far beyond the Pacific. WMO notes that individual events vary in strength, duration, and regional effects.
The longer-term warming trend has a different cause, as human activities, particularly fossil-fuel combustion and land-use change, have increased greenhouse gas concentrations and warmed the climate system. The current El Niño is therefore developing within oceans and an atmosphere that are already warmer than they were several decades ago. Higher temperatures can reduce soil and vegetation moisture where rainfall is limited, increasing drought and wildfire risk. A warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, increasing the potential for heavy rainfall when conditions favor it. In July 2026, average sea-surface temperatures across the extra-polar global ocean reached 20.96°C, the highest July value in the Copernicus record. Research continues into how unusually warm oceans interact with atmospheric circulation and persistent weather patterns.
For energy systems, prolonged conditions can be as consequential as individual extremes. Extended heat raises cooling demand while stressing water and infrastructure. Warm ocean water can also support tropical cyclone intensification when atmospheric conditions are favorable, shortening preparation time for communities and infrastructure operators.
Wildfire risk and lessons from Portugal
This summer’s wildfire conditions in Europe connect closely with academic work I completed on forest conservation, land management, and climate resilience. At the Instituto Superior de Agronomia, University of Lisbon, our discussions and fieldwork examined vegetation management, land abandonment, fuel accumulation, forest use, biodiversity, and local institutions. Questions raised: i)How can biodiversity conservation be balanced with economic forest use? ii)What approaches best prevent major fires? iii)How can communities participate in risk management? How should landscapes be managed as conditions become hotter and drier?
Portugal’s fire risk reflects several pressures at once, including hot and dry summers, land abandonment, vegetation buildup, fragmented land ownership, and changing climatic conditions. The relationship between conservation and economic use was interesting in cork oak landscapes. These areas have biodiversity and cultural value, while cork production gives landowners an economic incentive to maintain them. Unmanaged land presents a different problem because shrub encroachment and accumulated vegetation increase combustible material during fires. Grazing, vegetation management, mixed landscapes, firebreaks, and prescribed burning can reduce fuel continuity when suited to local conditions.
On the prevention side, Ascoli et al. (2023) define “fire-smart” management as combining fuel reduction with biodiversity, economic sustainability, cooperation, and adaptive management. On evidence-based planning, Guiomar, Pereira, and Fernandes (2023) caution against assuming that changing tree species or land cover alone will create resilient landscapes. Fire behavior also depends on weather, topography, vegetation, fuel, and local conditions. Wildfire resilience also has an energy dimension, the transmission corridors, substations, roads, and telecommunications infrastructure often occupy these same landscapes. During extreme heat, electricity demand can rise while wildfire threatens the infrastructure needed to meet it.
Academic fieldwork on forest management, conservation, and wildfire resilience, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, University of Lisbon, 2026. Photo by author.
Climate Resilience Beyond Renewable Capacity
An August 26 glacier collapse in Nepal triggered catastrophic flooding that damaged roads, bridges, settlements, and power infrastructure. While the event cannot be directly attributed to El Niño, it highlights the vulnerability of climate-sensitive energy infrastructure: hydropower projects, which represent over 12% of Nepal’s energy capacity, were damaged, with preliminary reconstruction costs estimated at $4–5 billion. Hydropower faces drought, flooding, sedimentation, landslides, and changing mountain environments. Wind and solar face different physical risks, while transmission and distribution networks remain exposed to heat, wildfire, storms, and flooding regardless of the electricity source.
The International Energy Agency has raised similar concerns about the developing El Niño, noting that a stronger El Niño could increase electricity demand due to higher cooling needs while reducing hydropower and wind generation in some regions.
Renewable-energy policy therefore has to look beyond installed capacity. Storage, interconnections, diversified resources, stronger grids, demand management, climate-informed infrastructure standards, and contingency planning all influence whether electricity remains available during extreme conditions.
Damaged areas after a flash flood swept through the Bhotekoshi River in Nuwakot, Nepal Photo Credit: Ambir Tolang / NurPhoto via Getty Images
Practical Realities
The current El Niño gives policymakers time to prepare, but that does not mean energy systems can adjust quickly. Seasonal forecasts still have to translate into decisions on demand, hydropower, transmission, reserve capacity, wildfire preparedness, and infrastructure investment.
Nonetheless, the current outlook exposes a basic weakness in energy policy. Expanding renewable capacity does not automatically reduce physical climate risk. A cleaner system can still be vulnerable to heat, drought, wildfire, and flooding.
In short, the energy transition is not only about adding renewable capacity. It is also about whether that system can keep working under changing climate conditions.
Suggested citation: Shikuku, Tabitha Florence. “El Niño 2026 and Energy Resilience in a Warming Climate.” Tabitha Shikuku, August 30, 2026.
Tags: climate policy, energy resilience, El Niño, renewable energy, wildfire
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